Three States Hold 50% of U.S. Foreclosures

Foreclosure-tracker RealtyTrac reports that the number of foreclosures nationwide rose 7 percent on a month-to-month basis last month.

However, 3 states dominated the foreclosure list, tallying more foreclosures between them than the rest of the country combined.

• California : 30.0 percent


• Florida : 15.7 percent


• Arizona : 5.4 percent

On a per-household basis, the states ranked 2, 3 and 4. Only Nevada's foreclosure rate was higher.

Now, we point out these statistics for two reasons.

The first is to remind you that foreclosures can be highly local. For all of the foreclosure-related stories that run in the papers and on TV, defaults make a much larger impact on home values in some areas versus others. In Pennsylvania for example, there are only 1 foreclosure for every 1030 housing units as opposed to New Jersey where there is one foreclosure for every 541 housing units, or the national average of one foreclosure for every 355 household units.

And, second -- foreclosures can represent a terrific buying opportunity. Not every foreclosed home is in pristine condition, but there is a plethora of affordable housing out there, suitable for first-time buyer, move-up buyers and investors, too. By buying a home after the foreclosure sale, all liens and encumbrances are removed, and the buyer will have title as clear and pristine as in any other type of sale. Title Insurance is still needed for the buyer's protection, but is normally provided at settlement.

Furthermore, as banks get better at disposing of foreclosed homes, the process of buying one isn't as challenging as it was, say, 12 months ago.

As part of its research, RealtyTrac.com catalogs a lot of foreclosed homes and lists them online. However, you may find it better to start your search with a local real estate agent that knows the foreclosure market.

So long as buying foreclosures is a high-touch process -- and it is a high-touch process -- you may want to have a human face and agent to guide you through it. To search for foreclosure properties , just check the Century 21 Advantage Gold Web site.

The complete RealtyTrac report is available online.

50% of the Foreclosures in the US are in 3 States!

Since 2007, foreclosures have dominated real estate news. You can't turn on the news or open a paper without some foreclosure-related story.

But for all of the discussion, foreclosures continue to be geographically concentrated.

Adding up the latest stats from RealtyTrac.com, more than half of the country's foreclosure actions from March occurred in just 3 states -- California, Florida and Nevada.

Those 3 states represent just 19 percent of the nation's population.

Despite the local concentration of foreclosures, however, they remain a national problem. This is because mortgage lenders lend in all 50 states -- not just 3 of them -- so the impact of mortgage defaults in one region can quickly spread to others.

In part because of foreclosures are higher, the following has happened:

• Mortgage guidelines have tightened
• Downpayment requirements have increased
• Private mortgage insurance has become more expensive

That's an important set of changes for a would-be borrower. In some cases, it can keep a person from qualifying.

Search the March 2009 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac.com's website.

First Time Investor Video

"Most of the biggest real estate fortunes were not made in good times, but in bad times like this" Barbara Corcoran reminds us in this talk with NBC.

It's important perspective for Americans wondering how to invest in foreclosed properties without losing their cash or their credit rating.

In the 4-minute interview, Corcoran quips on the basics and the essentials of foreclosure investing,

• "Everyone who loses their shirt loses it somewhere else."
• "Every big shark started small."
• "The house on the corner sets the tone for the block."

She also lends some personal perspective to rent rolls, the cost of losing a tenant, and finding a good business partner.

Banks are anxious to sell their foreclosed homes and that makes this an ideal time for shrewd real estate investors. If you're new to the game, watch the video and take good notes.

Good News For Investors!

Image by thinkpanama via Flickr

Last Friday, Fannie Mae rolled-back one of its least popular mortgage guidelines updates of the last 12 months.

Effective March 1, 2009, real estate investors can once again own and finance up to 10 individual properties. The restriction reversal does come with new minimum requirements, however.

Homeowners buying a 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th or 10th home must meet the following standards, as set forth by Fannie Mae:

1. 720 credit score
2. 25% downpayment for a 1-unit (30% for a 2-4 unit)
3. No mortgage delinquencies in the last 12 months
4. 6 months of reserves for each investment property

In other words, Fannie Mae is re-opening the lending spigot for real estate investors with good credit, a sizeable downpayment and ample reserves.

According to Fannie Mae, the change rationale is that experienced investors can "play a key role in the housing recovery". Until now, foreclosure auctions have gone at less than full speed because investors unable to pay cash have been halted by the existing 4-property Fannie Mae limit.

Going forward, expect a more expedient foreclosure liquidation nationwide which should, in turn, provide further support for the housing market.

And lastly, not to be forgotten, homeowners with more than 4 properties can finally participate in the ongoing conforming mortgage Refi Boom. Until now, they've been stymied by the 4-property restriction, too.

2009 Housing Market Predictions? No one Knows

The New Year is not yet one week old but that's not stopping market "experts" from predicting what's in store for 2009.

The calls on housing and mortgage rates run the gamut:

• Home prices have farther to fall
• Home prices have touched bottom
• Mortgage rates will dip
• Mortgage rates will rise

Put it all together and it's clear that the experts have no better idea about the future than you or I. Their guesses are educated ones, but they're guesses nonetheless.

A terrific example of how poorly experts can predict the future comes from a Wall Street Journal performance analysis of 1,700 mutual funds.

In 2008, only one earned a positive return. That one fund represents zero-point-zero-six percent of all tracked mutual funds. Surely, the fund managers of the other 99.94% didn't expect to post negative returns on the year.

So, before you use predictions about the demise (or recovery) of the broader economy to make "personal economy" decisions, consider that the oft-quoted experts have a hugely better track record in analyzing the past than the future.

All we know for sure right now is that home prices in our market have not fallen as far as the prices in other markets, and that the reduction in activity has not been mirrored by a drastic reduction in sales prices. With housing as affordable as it is now, buying a home for your family , or to establish financial security for yourself is still a good idea, if you buy with the intention of remainng in the property for more than a year or two. And with rates as low as they are now, over the long term, the 1 or 2% price fluctuations we have seen would not impct the long term benefits of home ownership.

The old saw still holds true "it is better to buy real estate and wait than it is to wait and buy real estate"

Explaining the Federal Reserves latest Moves

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to cut the Fed Funds Rate by at least three-quarters percent December 16th. The benchmark rate now rests in a range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC identified three key economic sectors in which activity has weakened since October. The FOMC noted that:

1. The U.S. job market is deteriorating
2. Consumer spending levels are falling
3. Business investment is contracting nationwide

The Fed intends its rate cut to provide stimulate to each of these areas.

In addition, the voting members of the FOMC singled out inflation as a diminishing threat to the economy. This is an important admission because it's well-known that cuts to the Fed Funds Rate can spark inflation. Rapidly falling oil prices and commodity costs, therefore, likely paved the way for today's historic cut.

In its announcement to markets, the Fed gave The People what they wanted -- a reassurance that the policy-making group would "employ all available tools" to help turnaround the economy. Lowering the Fed Funds Rate to an all-time low is one such step; its plan to purchase mortgage-backed debt in the open market is another.

With the promise of lower rates, and the abundance of inventory, buyers are seeing an unprecedented opportunity to create stability for their families and utilize their increased buying power to obtain secure housing and future financial benefits by owning their own home

Source
Parsing the Fed Statement
The Wall Street Journal Online
December 16, 2008
https://online.wsj.com/internal/mdc/info-fedparse0812.html

Deflation and What it Means -

Business television and newspapers have made deflation a hot topic this week and, since Monday, Google has tracked 13,000 mentions of it.

Deflation is a recurring cycle in which the prices of goods and services fall. Isolated to one industry or sector, falling prices is the natural result of competition.

For example, when DVD players were first introduced, they were tagged at $800.

Today, you can buy them for less than $20.

Across many industries, however, and happening at the same time, falling prices can shut down the economy. Rather than buy things on the cheap, people stop buying anything at all. And why would they? The same items will cost less tomorrow.

And this is the problem with deflation -- it halts consumer spending and consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When it stops, the economic result is dwindling corporate revenues which leads to:

1. Layoffs of the workforce, which leads to...
2. Less consumer spending, which leads to...
3. Dwindling corporate revenues, which leads to...

And the spiral continues.

Deflation can be much more insidious that its expansionary counterpart -- inflation. Inflation is when the prices generally rise over time and it's an economic condition through which governments can comfortably navigate. Deflation, on the other hand, is more rare and, therefore, fewer practical control measures exist.

Whether the U.S. economy will slip into deflation is a matter of debate.

The Fed has cut the Fed Funds Rate to promote economic growth and those changes can take up to 12 months to work their way through the economy. Deflationary pressures we're seeing today, in other words, may have already been addressed and corrected by Ben Bernanke's 10 rate cuts in the last 14 months.

Until the market figures it out, though, expect that each mention of deflation will hurt the stock market and help the bond market -- including the mortgage-backed variety. This should help lower mortgage rates and make homes more affordable.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Who Knows What the Future Holds?

As the stock market dips then jumps then dips again, it's important to remember that markets are unpredictable and nobody knows what will happen tomorrow.

Unfortunately, that doesn't stop the analysts from trying.

An obvious example comes from May of this year. As the price of oil crossed $120 per barrel on its way to an all-time high of $147, a Goldman Sachs analyst was quoted as saying that $200 oil was "likely".

It seemed like a logical conclusion at the time.

Today, though, just five months after the prediction, the analyst's "likely" scenario looks downright laughable. Oil is off by more than 40 percent since that day. And there's hundreds of examples just like this, all around us.

Every day, economic experts and analysts are on television, telling us what's going to happen in the future:

• They tell us when housing prices will reach a bottom
• They tell us when stock markets will rebound for good
• They tell us what the economy will do over the next 12 months

But none of them operate with the proverbial crystal ball -- it's all on "gut".

Another example is from today's CNNMoney.com. In the wake of the government's banking response, a mortgage analyst predicts 7 percent interest rates over the next six months This would represent a 1.5 percent from the recent lows.

The rate prediction may be accurate, or it may not. We won't know for another six months. But what we know today, though, is that mortgage rates are all over the place -- just like the stock market. One day up, another day down. And nobody knows what they'll do tomorrow.

Predicting the future has always been an inexact science but that won't stop the experts from trying. And the experts are wrong as often as anybody else.