Its Better to Buy Than Rent Again!

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One popular housing theory is that -- before a bona fide housing recovery can begin -- the cost of owning a home versus renting one must return to historical levels.

If that belief is a truth, a national return to rising home prices may be in store for 2009.

Falling home prices coupled with falling mortgage rates, too, have dropped the relative, after-tax cost of owning a home to 125% of the cost of renting a home.

This is the exact 18-year historical average and not since 2001 has the gap been this small.

As reported by the Wall Street Journal, though, the study has some flaws. For example, the data doesn't account for ongoing home maintenance costs, nor does it consider real estate tax bills and insurance policies.

But, combining a relatively low cost of ownership with the government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers is likely to convert long-time renters into never-before homeowners.

This, too, is thought to be a key element of the housing recovery.

In Philadelphia, typically the cost of owning has been very close to the cost of owning, and that fact, combined with the tax benefits of home ownership, and the financial stability of our housing market, has always tilted the scales in favor of owning a home. While our market has demonstrated remarkable price stability in light if the current economic issues, in many other markets (but not all), home prices are expected to edge lower through 2009. Provided mortgage rates stay low, the cost gap between owning and renting will shrink even more.

(Image courtesy: Wall Street Journal)

Home Buyers are Coming Out !

A real estate trade group reported Tuesday that Pending Home Sales ticked higher in December 2008. A "pending home sale" is a home under contract to sell, but not yet closed.

The group positions Pending Home Sales report as a predictor of future activity, suggesting that home sales will spike 60 days hence.

This is good news for the economy.

However, despite the Pending Home Sales report's correlation to the actual number of homes sold in the future, that connection may not be the report's best use. This is because of what Pending Homes Sales doesn't measure.

Specifically not included in Pending Homes Sales are:

1. Sales of new construction homes
2. Sales of For Sale By Owner properties
3. 80 percent of non-surveyed MLS transactions

And, lastly, it should be noted that Pending Home Sales tracks contracts -- not closings -- and until a home is sold and closed, nothing has really happened in the economy. That's especially relevant in a market like this in which finding financing isn't always so easy.

Pending Home Sales still has its place, though, because it's a terrific look at the current buy-side demand for homes. Clearly, low mortgage rates and falling home prices are making an impact and this is why the December's Pending Home Sales report is so important. It's the third housing report this month that shows the demand for homes rising while the supply of homes falls.

The other two reports:

1. The number of "used" homes sold monthly is rising
2. The number of new homes being built are falling

This is good news for home sellers and for the economy. As the existing inventory shrinks the value of the remaining inventory stabilizes and then increases. nd in an area like Philadelphia, where the prices have not been dramatically reduced, the benefot is even greater. If housing is expected to lead the U.S. out of recession, the seeds for that recovery may have already been planted.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

How Mortgage rates Help You buy More House!

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Comparing July's conforming mortgage rates to today's average rates, there's a 1.5 percent difference in favor of homeowners.

Rate drops like that make big differences in a household budget. Look at these before-and-after payments, based on rates from the chart:

$150,000 mortgage ($144 savings/month)

• July 2008: $958 monthly
• February 2009: $814 monthly

$250,000 mortgage ($240 savings/month)

• July 2008: $1,597 monthly
• February 2009: $1,357 monthly

$350,000 mortgage ($335 savings/month)

• July 2008: $2,235 monthly
• February 2009: $1,900 monthly

Of course, the other side of the story is that while mortgage rates fell through late-2008, the mandatory lender fees that accompanied them rose. That lessened some of the benefits of getting lower rates, but certainly not all of them.

According to recent housing data, buyers are back writing contracts and listed homes are selling quickly. Considering how mortgage rates have led monthly payments lower, maybe it shouldn't be much of a surprise.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

Why the Recession is the Buyer's Friend

After a weak holiday shopping season, annual retail sales declined in 2008.

It marks the first annual Retail Sales decline since the government started tracking the data 40 years ago.

It also gives credence to the notion that the U.S. economy is suffering through a deeper recession that previously thought. A pullback in spending -- especially during the shopping-heavy month of December -- highlights the cautious nature of today's American shoppers.

And in a strange sort of way, all of this may end up being good news for spring home buyers.

Because Retail Sales are reflective of consumer spending, a dramatic pullback helps to keep the economy in slow gear, countering the inflationary impact of government stimulus and direct intervention. Inflation, you'll remember, causes mortgage rates to rise. Its absence, therefore, helps to keep mortgage rates low.

In addition, it's earnings season on Wall Street and weak corporate guidance has spurred a 6-day decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. As dollars leave the stock market, investors are parking them in the safer world of bonds. This includes mortgage bonds, of course, which further pressures rates lower. And of course, lower rates make housing, at any price more affordable for any buyer.

As a result, economic weakness -- to a point -- can be the friend of a person in need of a new home loan. For active home buyers or people entering the market this spring, therefore, the timing may be just right, with affordable prices in our market combining with these lower rates to make the potential housing cost better than it will probably be in the future as the economy recovers spurring sales and reducing inventory.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

Lower Mortgage Rates Require Higher Fees

Another week, another headline screams how mortgage rates have fallen to an all-time low.

Freddie Mac published its weekly mortgage rate survey Thursday and found that the "average" mortgage rate is now 4.96 percent, the lowest since the survey started in 1971.

But, if we look beyond the headline, we find that there's another part of the story worth watching. Mortgage rates are falling but the number of points required to lock those rates is not.

Lenders now require an average payment of 0.7 points to get the 4.96 percent rate from the headlines. That's up from 0.6 percent last week and 0.4 percent a year ago.

A "point" is a fee equal to 1 percent of the loan size.

Therefore, to get access to a 4.96 percent interest rate on a $200,000 home loan, today's lender would require an extra $200 versus last week and $600 versus last year. Today's mortgage borrower would be subject to a $1,400 closing cost in addition to the "typical" closing costs accompanying a purchase or refinance.

This is a period of historically low rates -- there's no doubt about that. However, the cost of getting access to low rates is increasing. The press doesn't always tell that part of the story and it's one more reason to look deeper than the headlines.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

2009 Housing Market Predictions? No one Knows

The New Year is not yet one week old but that's not stopping market "experts" from predicting what's in store for 2009.

The calls on housing and mortgage rates run the gamut:

• Home prices have farther to fall
• Home prices have touched bottom
• Mortgage rates will dip
• Mortgage rates will rise

Put it all together and it's clear that the experts have no better idea about the future than you or I. Their guesses are educated ones, but they're guesses nonetheless.

A terrific example of how poorly experts can predict the future comes from a Wall Street Journal performance analysis of 1,700 mutual funds.

In 2008, only one earned a positive return. That one fund represents zero-point-zero-six percent of all tracked mutual funds. Surely, the fund managers of the other 99.94% didn't expect to post negative returns on the year.

So, before you use predictions about the demise (or recovery) of the broader economy to make "personal economy" decisions, consider that the oft-quoted experts have a hugely better track record in analyzing the past than the future.

All we know for sure right now is that home prices in our market have not fallen as far as the prices in other markets, and that the reduction in activity has not been mirrored by a drastic reduction in sales prices. With housing as affordable as it is now, buying a home for your family , or to establish financial security for yourself is still a good idea, if you buy with the intention of remainng in the property for more than a year or two. And with rates as low as they are now, over the long term, the 1 or 2% price fluctuations we have seen would not impct the long term benefits of home ownership.

The old saw still holds true "it is better to buy real estate and wait than it is to wait and buy real estate"

Low Rates + Too Many Houses= Opportunity

For the first time in over a year, the sales of "used homes" fell below the 5-million unit trendline, helping to push the total home inventory higher by 0.1 percent nationwide.

Based on the rate at which homes are selling nationwide, it would take 11.2 months for the existing housing supply to be exhausted. In our market, the existing housing supply would be exhausted well before that benchmark.

For home buyers, this is an opportune time for negative news on housing.

First, sellers know that between now and the Super Bowl, housing activity will be light. The general scarcity of buyers may force a seller to accept a bid he wouldn't have accepted otherwise.

Second, the economy is showing weakness and that, too, can concern a home seller. Buyers are less likely to extend themselves during times of economic uncertainty, further reducing the buyer pool and, again, putting pressure on the seller to "make a deal".

And lastly, because the government has been trying to force mortgage rates down as a way to stimulate the economy, the weak housing data is actually making it cheaper to finance a home. This means that a well-qualified home buyer can better stay within budget.

Each 0.500 percent rate reduction saves $33 per $100,000 borrowed.

It is important to remember, though, that the U.S. housing market is not national -- it's highly localized. This is one reason why national real estate reports can be misleading. Just as figures from Phoenix have little to do with statistics from St. Paul, even data from neighboring ZIP codes can vary. In our marketplace, prices have not been adversely effected, even though the number of homes sold in 2008 was less than in 2007.

The universal truth, however, is that a home that is priced fairly will sell more quickly than a home that is not. And, until the Super Bowl passes in 45 days, expect fewer buyers to be out there competing for them.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

Deflation and What it Means -

Business television and newspapers have made deflation a hot topic this week and, since Monday, Google has tracked 13,000 mentions of it.

Deflation is a recurring cycle in which the prices of goods and services fall. Isolated to one industry or sector, falling prices is the natural result of competition.

For example, when DVD players were first introduced, they were tagged at $800.

Today, you can buy them for less than $20.

Across many industries, however, and happening at the same time, falling prices can shut down the economy. Rather than buy things on the cheap, people stop buying anything at all. And why would they? The same items will cost less tomorrow.

And this is the problem with deflation -- it halts consumer spending and consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. When it stops, the economic result is dwindling corporate revenues which leads to:

1. Layoffs of the workforce, which leads to...
2. Less consumer spending, which leads to...
3. Dwindling corporate revenues, which leads to...

And the spiral continues.

Deflation can be much more insidious that its expansionary counterpart -- inflation. Inflation is when the prices generally rise over time and it's an economic condition through which governments can comfortably navigate. Deflation, on the other hand, is more rare and, therefore, fewer practical control measures exist.

Whether the U.S. economy will slip into deflation is a matter of debate.

The Fed has cut the Fed Funds Rate to promote economic growth and those changes can take up to 12 months to work their way through the economy. Deflationary pressures we're seeing today, in other words, may have already been addressed and corrected by Ben Bernanke's 10 rate cuts in the last 14 months.

Until the market figures it out, though, expect that each mention of deflation will hurt the stock market and help the bond market -- including the mortgage-backed variety. This should help lower mortgage rates and make homes more affordable.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

If Demand is Up and Supply is Down - Are We Starting to Recover?

Statistics are what you make of them, but sometimes, they can provide good perspective.

For example, from its peak in 2005 to its trough in late-2007, the number of "used" homes sold nationwide plunged.

• In 2005: Roughly 7 million homes sold annually
• In 2007: Roughly 5 million homes sold annually

Through all of 2008, though, Existing Home Sales volume has been essentially flat. Some months up, some months down, but always hovering near the 5 million unit mark.

The data from September is no different.

For the 13th consecutive month, the number of home resales nationwide straddled the 5 million benchmark, clocking in at 5.18 million units. This tells us that everyday Americans are still buying and selling real estate at a fairly steady clip -- despite what the news keeps telling us.

Versus August, September sales volume grew by 5.5 percent.

Now, couple this two other data points and we can see that the housing market is showing multiple signs of strength:

1. The national home supply is now down to 9.9 months
2. The number of homes under contract is up 7.4 percent

Again, though, statistics are what you make of them. Just as there are positive signals about real estate, there are negative ones, too. The credit markets are one example of that.

But, either way, with a full year of stable sales volume behind us and stories of recovery in beat-up markets like California, we can't ignore the idea that housing may be done trolling its bottom.

It takes willing buyers and willing sellers to turnaround a market. It appears that housing may have both.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

Small Housing Supply Better for Sellers Than BuyersB

The August Existing Home Sales report was released last Wednesday, showing a decline in the number of homes sold nationwide, and a reduction in the median sales price.

Not surprisingly, the media singled these two statistics out, playing them as a big negative.

They're not.

The decline in sales wasn't good, but it wasn't terrible, either -- sales were actually up in half of the regions around the country.

And, citing "median sales price" is somewhat pointless because median sales price only measures the price point at which half the homes sold for more, and half sold for less.

No, it's the third statistic in the report that deserves as much -- if not more -- attention that the previous two. According to yesterday's press release, the national home supply is decreasing.

This is terrific news for home sellers.

In its report, the National Association of REALTORS said that the nation's existing supply of homes for sale fell by 7 percent in August.

At the current pace of sales, that represents a 10.4-month supply, down from 10.9 months in July. With a reduced supply of homes for sale, all things equal, home prices would increase.

This is Supply and Demand in its most basic form.

Economists and experts have long noted that reducing the housing supply is one of the key elements to a sustainable housing recovery and we've seen several indications that this is happening, including builders not building as much.

Longer-term, this is good news for home sellers because a reduction in housing supply tends to lead to higher prices.

(Images courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

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