CNNMoney.com Predicts The Best And Worst Real Estate Markets For 2010

CNNMoney.com recently published its 2010 forecast and projections for home prices in the country's largest metro markets.

Listed as "Top 25" and also comprehensively by state, CNNMoney.com's home price forecasts puts Santa Rosa, California at the top of 2010's home appreciation list and Hanford, California at its bottom.

The 10 cities projected for highest home appreciation in 2010 are:

1. Santa Rosa, CA : +6.0%
2. Cheyenne, WY : +4.7%
3. Kennewick, WA : +4.6%
4. Merced, CA : +4.4%
5. Bremerton, WA : +4.2%
6. Fairbanks, AK : +4.2%
7. Corvallis, OR : +4.1%
8. Tacoma, WA : +3.9%
9. Anchorage, AK : +3.8%
10. Bend, OR : +3.3%

The Pacific Northwest is the region most heavily-represented among price gainers. The Southeast and Middle Atlantic are most represented on the under-perform list.

However, just because a city's homes are expected to appreciate (or depreciate) in 2010, that doesn't mean that every home within its limits will follow suit. Real estate cannot be grouped on a city level like CNNMoney.com tries to. There will always be areas in demand within city limits in which prices rise, just as there will be out-of-demand areas in which prices fall.

Real estate data can't be grouped by city or even by ZIP code, really.

Real estate in Mount Holly is more local than that.

When we say "real estate is local", it means that every street in every town has a distinct set of traits that drives its home values. Homes that are one block closer to the train; or, homes that are facing north; or, homes that are made of brick. Each of these characteristics can affect a home's desirability which, in turn, can affects its sales price.

National surveys can't capture "essence" like this. They only report on the aggregate.

For local real estate data, look to established, publicly available websites and to active, local real estate agents. Both will have data and insight that can help you. National surveys often make for good headlines, but do little to help homebuyers find good value.

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• America's most overvalued cities (money.cnn.com)

Foreclosures Per Capita | February 2010

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 12th straight month last month as 1 in every 418 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.

It's a small improvement from January and a just 6 percent increase over February 2009.

On a per-capita basis, foreclosure density varied by state:

• Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 102 homes
• Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
• Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
• California : 1 foreclosure filing per 195 homes

Also, as in January 2010, foreclosures across the country were concentrated. 10 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average; 40 states fell below. Like everything else is real estate, it seems, foreclosures are local.

For today's Palmyra home buyers, foreclosures represent an interesting opportunity.

Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes. It's one reason why distressed home sales account for 38 percent of all resales. However, less expensive doesn't always mean less costly. A foreclosed home may be in various stages of disrepair and they're often sold as-is, as policy.

Buying new or used in Philadelphia or surrounding counties can be cheaper than buying broken-down. Buying foreclosures is attractive, and I've been selling bank owned properties since 1988, but you can create a problem for yourself if you chase the "deal" instead of looking for the house that suits your needs.

Therefore, if you're in the market for a bank-owned home, make sure you know what you're buying before you sign a contract. Have qualified professionals review and inspect the property, as needed. Damage to pipes or the property's structure, for example, may not be so obvious on a walk-though and you'll want to know about it before you buy. If you want to look at foreclosure properties, just visit our website.

Also, foreclosed homes are federal tax credit-eligible. Buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010.

The True Picture: Half of all Foreclosure Issues in Only Four States

Foreclosures stories dominate the national housing news. It seems at least one foreclosure-related story makes its way to the front page or the nightly news every week.

But for as much as the foreclosure filing statistics can be astounding -- over 300,000 homes were served last month alone -- the prevalence of foreclosures depends on where you live.

As reported by RealtyTrac, just 4 states accounted for more than half of the country's foreclosure-related activity last month.

• California : 22.7 percent of all activity


• Florida : 14.9 percent of all activity


• Arizona : 6.7 percent of all activity


• Illinois : 5.7 percent of all activity

The other 46 states (and Washington D.C.) claimed the remaining 49.9%.

However, just because foreclosures are concentrated geographically, that doesn't make them less important to homebuyers in Philadelphia, Palmyra and around the country. There's been more than 1.4 million foreclosure filings in the last 12 months and that's a figure that can't be ignored.

Distressed properties now play a role in one-third of all home resales.

Therefore, if you're in the market for a foreclosed home, here's a few things to keep in mind.

1. Properties are usually sold "as-is" and may not be up to living standards. Be sure to physically inspect the home before buying it.


2. Buying a home from a bank is rarely as streamlined as buying from an individual homeowner. Be prepared for delays and long closings.


3. Foreclosures aren't always listed for sale publicly. Ask your real estate agent how to access the complete foreclosure inventory.

In order to use the federal homebuyer tax credit, you must be under contract for a home by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010. That doesn't leave much time to find a bank-owned home and make it to closing. In Philadelphia we also face specific issues regarding the time needed for settlement because the deed obtained from the foreclosure sale often takes a longer time to record than in other counties. So if you're serious about buying foreclosures, it's probably best to start your search soon.

REBarCamp Virginia Beach

I'll be sharing information and learning from my peers later this week at ReBarCamp Virginia Beach.

ReBarCamps are a phenomena that have swept the real estate industry this year after the initial event in San Francisco held in July 2008. They are "Un-Conferences" where the agenda is created the morning of the event by the participants. This year saw these volunteer driven events spring up in New York, Portland, Phoenix, Philadelphia, Fredricksburg, Denver, Los Angeles, Charlotte, Orange County, and Boston, with events still to come in Lynchburg, Columbus, and Miami.

If you haven't been to one, you ought to try to get there - Its free, its fun and its a great place to learn.

Philadelphia Foreclosures and the Pareto Principal

The Pareto Principle is a statistical concept most commonly known as the 80/20 Rule, and is commonly applied in a variety of situations. for example "20% of the salesmen make 80% of the sales" or put another way "20% of your efforts generate 0% of your results"

Iin other words 80 percent of the effects come from 20 of the causes according to this principal.

Apparently, the 80/20 Rule applies to foreclosures, too -- at least according to data compiled by foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.

Based on data from May, 11 states accounted for 80% of the country's foreclosure activity. The remaining 20% was spread across the 39 others.

That's 80/20 almost to the tee.

The disparity goes deeper that that, though. The top three states in RealtyTrac's list -- California, Florida, Nevada -- were home to half of May's foreclosure-related actions.

Clearly, foreclosures are concentrated in certain geographies, generally where the spike in the real estate market was the greatest. Put another way, the places with the greatest increases, saw the greatest decreases in price, and were subject to the greatest abuses in mortgage lending. As a result these states are seeing the largest amount of foreclosures

But, even in Pennsylvania,where we are not suffering from as difficult a market as other places in the country, foreclosures still impact us. This is because mortgage lenders are often national companies, lending in all 50 states.

When home loans go bad -- in any state -- lenders respond by increasing downpayment requirements and by adding new borrowing hurdles. If you've applied for a mortgage in the last 18 months, you've experienced this phenomenon personally.

On the other side, if you're a home buyer in a foreclosure-heavy state, you're finding terrific value versus several years ago. It's one reason why Existing Home Sales in the West Region are up by 19 percent from last year, for example.

50% of the Foreclosures in the US are in 3 States!

Since 2007, foreclosures have dominated real estate news. You can't turn on the news or open a paper without some foreclosure-related story.

But for all of the discussion, foreclosures continue to be geographically concentrated.

Adding up the latest stats from RealtyTrac.com, more than half of the country's foreclosure actions from March occurred in just 3 states -- California, Florida and Nevada.

Those 3 states represent just 19 percent of the nation's population.

Despite the local concentration of foreclosures, however, they remain a national problem. This is because mortgage lenders lend in all 50 states -- not just 3 of them -- so the impact of mortgage defaults in one region can quickly spread to others.

In part because of foreclosures are higher, the following has happened:

• Mortgage guidelines have tightened
• Downpayment requirements have increased
• Private mortgage insurance has become more expensive

That's an important set of changes for a would-be borrower. In some cases, it can keep a person from qualifying.

Search the March 2009 foreclosure report for yourself on RealtyTrac.com's website.

How to buy Foreclosures

This video was sent to me as I am attending the REOMAC (REO Managers Association of California) meetings in Palm Desert California. Because I have been an REO expert for 20 years, I became a member of REOMAC several years ago.

REOMAC is the leading organization for the mortgage default industry, and its two annual meetings provide its members with a tremendous amount of information on the amount of foreclosures throughout the country, and the best ways to help lenders and consumers work together to reduce the number of foreclosures.

Watch and learn!

Real Estate Technology from Philadelphia to Los Angeles

Image by reeltor99 via Flickr

Ok, so it looks like I'm hard at work writing this blog for your pleasure, but I'm actually on the way to Philadelphia International Airport (PHL) to catch my flight to Los Angeles (LAX). Though the weather is probably warmer there than here (I'm in Philadelphia writing this earlier this week), the weather is not why I'm going.

Tomorrow is REBarCamp Los Angeles, (actually being held in lovely Pasadena) another one of the many ReBarCamps which have been springing up across the country.

ReBarCamp is

an ad-hoc gathering born from the desire for people to share and learn in an open environment. It is an intense event with discussions, demos, and interaction from attendees.

I had the pleasure of attending the very first ReBarCamp last July in San Francisco just prior to the Inman Connect event. It was boisterous, friendly and educational. The camaraderie was intense, as were a number of the sessions.

This year, the REBar Camps have really taken off, with events being held in New York and Virginia and more Camps scheduled all over the country, in fact yesterday I visited sites for REBarCamp Philadelphia which will be held on May 27th at Greater Philadelphia Association of REALTORS, located at 1341 N. Delaware Ave. - Suite 200 - Philadelphia, PA (just north of Penn Treaty Park where William Penn signed his treaty with the local native Americans).

I know that I have enjoyed the experience and increased my knowledge every time I have participated in an RE Bar Camp, and I think almost anyone will. And if I don't see you tonight at the welcome for ReBarCamp LA, then I hope I'll see you in Philly on May 27th!

2009 Jumbo Loan Limits

For the 4th consecutive year, the government has set the conforming mortgage loan size limit at $417,000.

A conforming mortgage is one that, quite literally, conforms to the mortgage guidelines set forth by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

The 2009 conforming loan limits, as released by the government, are:

• 1-unit properties : $417,000
• 2-unit properties : $533,850
• 3-unit properties : $645,300
• 4-unit properties : $801,950

Loans in excess of conforming loan limits are more commonly called "jumbo", or "super jumbo" home loans, depending on their size.

Out-sized mortgages like these are often more costly than their conforming-mortgage counterparts because jumbo loans are not guaranteed by the U.S. government like Fannie Mae loans are.

There are exceptions to the loan limits, however.

Left over from the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, specific, "high-cost" areas around the country have their own conforming loan limits, not to exceed $625,500. There are 59 designated high-cost regions in the U.S., most of which are in California.

Loan limits are re-assigned each year, based on "typical" housing costs around the country. Since 1980, as home prices have increased, so have conforming loan limits. As home prices have fallen in recent years nationwide, however, the conforming loan limit has not.

If Demand is Up and Supply is Down - Are We Starting to Recover?

Statistics are what you make of them, but sometimes, they can provide good perspective.

For example, from its peak in 2005 to its trough in late-2007, the number of "used" homes sold nationwide plunged.

• In 2005: Roughly 7 million homes sold annually
• In 2007: Roughly 5 million homes sold annually

Through all of 2008, though, Existing Home Sales volume has been essentially flat. Some months up, some months down, but always hovering near the 5 million unit mark.

The data from September is no different.

For the 13th consecutive month, the number of home resales nationwide straddled the 5 million benchmark, clocking in at 5.18 million units. This tells us that everyday Americans are still buying and selling real estate at a fairly steady clip -- despite what the news keeps telling us.

Versus August, September sales volume grew by 5.5 percent.

Now, couple this two other data points and we can see that the housing market is showing multiple signs of strength:

1. The national home supply is now down to 9.9 months
2. The number of homes under contract is up 7.4 percent

Again, though, statistics are what you make of them. Just as there are positive signals about real estate, there are negative ones, too. The credit markets are one example of that.

But, either way, with a full year of stable sales volume behind us and stories of recovery in beat-up markets like California, we can't ignore the idea that housing may be done trolling its bottom.

It takes willing buyers and willing sellers to turnaround a market. It appears that housing may have both.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)