Home Inventory Dwindles Into The New Year

Existing Home Sales jumped another 6 percent in November, the report's third month of improvement since bottoming in July.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, a quarter-million more existing homes were sold during the annual period ending in November as compared to October.  An "existing home" is a home that cannot be considered new construction.
Additionally, the national housing supply dropped by a full month. At the current pace of existing home sales, the complete stock of homes for sale will be exhausted in 9.5 months.
November's strong housing data is yet another signal to buyers in Palmyra that the housing market's foundation has been rebuilt, and that a rebound is imminent.  It's helped that there are great "deals" on which for buyers to pounce.
In November, short sales and foreclosures accounted for one-third of all existing homes sold, and carried an average price discount of 10 percent and 15 percent, respectively, as compared to non-distressed sales.
Repeat buyers continue to power the market, too, representing more than half of all home buyers.

• First-time buyers : 32% of all buyers
• Investors : 19% of all buyers
• Repeat buyers : 51% of all buyers

This breakdown suggests that housing has regained its footing. First-time buyers can't support a market long-term like repeat buyers can and, as compared to 12 months ago, the percentage of repeat buyers is now up 14 points.
Home buyers take note. Raw sales volume is rising and available inventory is dropping. Basic supply-and-demand tells us that this will lead home prices higher. Furthermore, mortgage rates are rising quickly, increasing the cost of homeownership.
If buying a home is a part of your plan for 2011, consider accelerating your purchase time frame. Existing homes account for more than 80% of homes sold nationwide. If the market keeps improving like this, your home affordability will worsen.

As The Supply Of New Homes Grows, So Does The Opportunity For A "Good Deal"

The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month -- good news for homebuyers in Philadelphia, New Jersey, and around the country.

A "new home" is a home for which there's no previous owner.

New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 -- the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.

Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009's pace.

The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:

• The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
• Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
• Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales

Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it's a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.

As a result, this season's home buyers may be treated to "free" upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.

It's all a matter of timing, of course. New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it's not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season. And from market to market, sales activity varies.

That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It's a favorable time to buy a new home.

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Looking At The 2010 Predictions For Housing Markets And Mortgage Rates

2010 is just a few days old and already the "experts" are making predictions for the year.

Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:

• Home prices will fall in 2010
• Home prices will rise in 2010
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2010
• Mortgage rates will rise by a lot in 2010

Given how varied their outlooks, it's clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it's a guess nonetheless.

Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn't fall. Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction was fulfilled.

In a recent article in Real Estate Trends, it was predicted that the Philadelphia market would appreciate at a rate that would make it one of the top 20 markets in the country. And based on the early activity this year, demand for our moderate priced housing may well lead to increased prices.

There's a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what's coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.

The only thing that's certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there's a lot of good "deals" in housing. Make the most of what's out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.

Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses.

Can You Still Catch the Buyer's Market?

The national housing supply fell to a 2-year low last month, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

At the current sales pace, existing home inventories would sell out in 7.8 months -- 30 percent faster versus November 2008.

For a 10-month window, that's a major housing supply reduction and it helps to explain why multiple-offer situations have been so common lately.

Moreover, the same report from NAR showed sales activity reaching its highest point since July 2007, too.

If you're looking for evidence that the long-standing Buyers Market is ending, this month's Existing Home Sales report might be it.

Even median sales prices -- typically dragged lower by distressed and foreclosed properties -- declined at its slowest pace in a year. The market may have turned a corner.

Home prices are rooted in the basic economics of supply and demand.

• When supply outweighs demand, home prices fall
• When supply lags demand, home price rise

Since March 2009, the market has been moving in the right direction. Low mortgage rates, ample housing supply and a first-time home buyer tax credit fueled buy-side demand so that home prices are now rising in many U.S. markets.

If home supplies stay on this path into 2010, expect home prices to rise even more.

Case-Schiller Index Points to Stronger Market

Last Tuesday -- for the first time in a long while -- members of the press met the monthly Case-Shiller Index data with enthusiasm. And why shouldn't they? 19 of the 20 measured markets showed a slowing pace of home price decline in April.

Here are some of the headlines about the story:

• Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline Only 18% (Business Week)


• Case-Shiller Less Bad (Seeking Alpha)


• Home Prices In 20 Cities Drop Less Than Expected (Bloomberg)

Now, the headlines feel negative, but they're actually highlighting some key strengths in April's figures. For example, nearly half of the Case-Shiller markets posted gains in April and all but one showed month-over-month improvement.

It's a step in the right direction but doesn't mean that housing has turned around for good.

We have to be careful about how we interpret the Case-Shiller Index because it's an imperfect housing gauge. The most obvious Case-Shiller flaw is that it only measures home values in 20 cities nationwide and they're not even the 20 biggest cities.

Houston, Philadelphia, San Antonio and San Jose are excluded from the report and each ranks among the country's 10 most populous areas. Because of that, I usually don't like to quote the Case-Schiller Index, because we live in Philadelphia, and if our data is not included in the calculations, using it to discuss our market is an inherently flawed conversation.

That said, the report is still paid attention to nationally because the Case-Shiller Index is thought to identify broader housing trends and that helps to shape economic policy, and the idea of a single index is attractive to people writing about housing. And perhaps because this report is a positive report, and I am an inherently optimistic individual, I feel better about using the report to discuss the real estate market.

Not only versus last month but also versus last year, the pace at which home values are falling appears to be getting slower. This is the third straight month Case-Shiller has reported as such.

Now, three months makes a trend, but the data has to stay strong through the summer months to mark a bona fide turnaround. If the Case-Shiller Index shows strength for May and June, it could be the signal for which the markets have been waiting.

More Information That The Housing Market has Reached Bottom

The national housing market got three pieces of good news in 3 days last week:

• Monday: Existing Home Sales up
• Tuesday: Home values appear higher nationally
• Wednesday: New Home Sales up

And although national real estate statistics are irrelevant to the local markets in which real estate transactions happen, to a country of would-be and wanna-be home buyers, repeated positive news on housing can be a strong signal that it's time to get off the sidelines.

At least, that's what the data is showing us. According to an industry trade group, first-time home buyers accounted for half of all sales of previously-owned homes.

The stimulus package's $8,000 tax credit likely played a role in this 50 percent figure, as well as sagging home prices in most markets and low mortgage rates nationwide. In Philadelphia's very affordable market, where price declines have been truly nominal compared to those in many parts of the country, these first time buyers are seeing even more benefit from the program, and our company is seeing many people acting now to take advantage of the incentive.

But lest we carried away, we can't forget that February's New Home Sales is still the second-lowest tally on record and that two months of data doesn't define "turnaround".

On the other hand, if the trend continues through the Spring Buying Season, we'll likely look back at Winter 2009 as the low point in housing. Since it has been my experience that we only recognize the end of any difficult period in retrospect, these indicators gain more significance in my mind.

(Image courtesy: LA Times)

Housing Sales Rise While Consumer Cinfidence Sags

Image by Smabs Sputzer via Flickr

Consumer Confidence fell this month for the first time in three months, reflecting Americans' concern for the economy, housing, and the financial system.

The reading isn't much of a surprise given our collective exposure to a near-constant stream of negative news. Before long, the reports become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Despite falling confidence, however, the housing industry appears to be reviving. Sales of existing homes are on the rise and an increasing number of homes are under contract to sell. And, if these statistics seem out of place, consider the external forces that are accompanying this "down" economy:

• In some markets, home values have plummeted to early-2000 levels


• Government intervention has brought mortgage rates to near-5 percent


• Congress is pledging key support to housing and mortgage markets

These points can't be captured in confidence surveys which, by comparison, ignore facts and focus on Big Picture behavioral questions like "Do you think you'll be better off a year from now?" and "What's your attitude toward buying major household items?". It's useful information for economists, but not so much for home buyers.

Anecdotally, a lot of the country's housing markets have already started their recovery. Couple that with the natural momentum of Spring Buying and the stimulus package's proposed first-time home buyer tax credit and you can clearly see the disconnect.

Just because confidence is down doesn't mean that home prices will be, too.

Are We Seeing the First Signs of a Housing Recovery?

Don't let the plunging median sales price fool you -- December's Existing Home Sales data has home sellers smiling.

Just one month after falling below the 5-million unit trend line, sales volume roared back by 300,000 homes in December, surprising housing analysts and making a case that this spring's Buying Season could be a competitive one.

Falling home prices helped fuel home sales. Nationally, the median sales price -- the point at which half of all homes sold for more and half sold for less -- was $175,400, down $32,000 from last year.

However, the most important part of December's Existing Home Sales report isn't making headlines.

At December's sales pace, it would now take 9.3 months to exhaust the existing home supply. Last month it was 11.2 months. This means that buyers are competing to purchase fewer homes which, in turn, puts upward pressure on home prices.

This is Supply and Demand at its most basic definition.

Economists have long said that the keystone of housing's recovery will be rebalancing in home supply. Coupled with the all-time low in housing starts, December's Existing Home Sales data signals future strength.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

2009 Housing Market Predictions? No one Knows

The New Year is not yet one week old but that's not stopping market "experts" from predicting what's in store for 2009.

The calls on housing and mortgage rates run the gamut:

• Home prices have farther to fall
• Home prices have touched bottom
• Mortgage rates will dip
• Mortgage rates will rise

Put it all together and it's clear that the experts have no better idea about the future than you or I. Their guesses are educated ones, but they're guesses nonetheless.

A terrific example of how poorly experts can predict the future comes from a Wall Street Journal performance analysis of 1,700 mutual funds.

In 2008, only one earned a positive return. That one fund represents zero-point-zero-six percent of all tracked mutual funds. Surely, the fund managers of the other 99.94% didn't expect to post negative returns on the year.

So, before you use predictions about the demise (or recovery) of the broader economy to make "personal economy" decisions, consider that the oft-quoted experts have a hugely better track record in analyzing the past than the future.

All we know for sure right now is that home prices in our market have not fallen as far as the prices in other markets, and that the reduction in activity has not been mirrored by a drastic reduction in sales prices. With housing as affordable as it is now, buying a home for your family , or to establish financial security for yourself is still a good idea, if you buy with the intention of remainng in the property for more than a year or two. And with rates as low as they are now, over the long term, the 1 or 2% price fluctuations we have seen would not impct the long term benefits of home ownership.

The old saw still holds true "it is better to buy real estate and wait than it is to wait and buy real estate"

Small Housing Supply Better for Sellers Than BuyersB

The August Existing Home Sales report was released last Wednesday, showing a decline in the number of homes sold nationwide, and a reduction in the median sales price.

Not surprisingly, the media singled these two statistics out, playing them as a big negative.

They're not.

The decline in sales wasn't good, but it wasn't terrible, either -- sales were actually up in half of the regions around the country.

And, citing "median sales price" is somewhat pointless because median sales price only measures the price point at which half the homes sold for more, and half sold for less.

No, it's the third statistic in the report that deserves as much -- if not more -- attention that the previous two. According to yesterday's press release, the national home supply is decreasing.

This is terrific news for home sellers.

In its report, the National Association of REALTORS said that the nation's existing supply of homes for sale fell by 7 percent in August.

At the current pace of sales, that represents a 10.4-month supply, down from 10.9 months in July. With a reduced supply of homes for sale, all things equal, home prices would increase.

This is Supply and Demand in its most basic form.

Economists and experts have long noted that reducing the housing supply is one of the key elements to a sustainable housing recovery and we've seen several indications that this is happening, including builders not building as much.

Longer-term, this is good news for home sellers because a reduction in housing supply tends to lead to higher prices.

(Images courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)

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