We Wish You All a Happy New Year 2009

2008 was a challenging year. Mot so much because of the economics of the year, or even the political strife created by a contentious election, but because of the loss of my best friend, my wife Sheila.

Sheila always looked for the best in people and with an open heart wished the best for them as well. In her memory, the memory of the love that she spread during her life, and the love that her family and friends felt for her, I wanted to share this lovely video.

Here is myhope that 2009 will be a better, happier year for all of us, and that we can all experience the good things that she would have wished for us, that we wish for ourselves, and that we wish for our loved ones-

Home Prices On The Rise, Says The October Home Price Index Report

More positive signals from housing -- home values are still on the rise.

According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency, after posting its first quarterly increase since 2007 this past September, the Home Price Index rose by another 0.6 percent in October.

Prices are up in 4 of the last six months.

But before we take the stats to the proverbial bank, it's important that we recognize the Home Price Index for its shortcomings.

1. HPI only accounts for homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac
2. HPI only accounts for re-sold homes -- newly-built homes are excluded
3. HPI aggregates national data whereas real estate markets are local phenomena

On a broad scale, the Home Price Index can be useful, but it doesn't specifically apply to Palmyra or any specific U.S. market. For that, analysts tend to turn to the Case-Shiller Index, a privately-produced report that assesses home values in 20 cities nationwide.

The good news for home sellers in South Philly is that Case-Shiller's most recent report corroborates the government's conclusion -- home values are creeping back.

Home buyers should pay attention. When public and private sector data is in accord, markets tend to go along and, looking back, housing likely bottomed in February 2009. Since then, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased in most U.S. markets. Furthermore, so long as mortgage rates remain low and government stimulus is in place, the trend should continue through at least the first quarter of 2010.

If you're on the fence about buying a home right now, or wondering about timing, consider your options vis-a-vis today's market. Into the new year, homes won't likely be as cheap to buy, nor to finance.

RE-FIs May Slow CLosings on Sales

In late-November, the Federal Reserve pledged $600 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities. The announcement drove down mortgage rates and started the Refi Boom.

Then, the Federal Reserve made a second series of statements after its scheduled meeting last Tuesday, causing mortgage rates to plunge again. This started the Refi Boom's second wave.

Because of the surge in refinance activity, mortgage lenders are "backed up"; initial file reviews are taking up to 12 business days in some cases.

Typically, this process takes 2 days.

Underwriting delays are problem for refinancing Americans because when a mortgage rate is locked, it's most often locked for 30 calendar days -- the standard Rate Lock Agreement contract length. If the mortgage doesn't close within those 30 days, the applicant must either pay an "extension fee" to preserve the lock, or risk losing the rate altogether.

30 days may seem like a long time, but let's consider a few external variables:

• December 24, 25, and 26 plus January 1 and 2 are lost to holiday
• December 27, 28 plus January 3, 4, 10, 11, 17, and 18 are lost to weekends
• January 19 is lost to federal holiday
• 3 days are lost to the Right To Cancel clause

This leaves 13 days to get from Application to Closing, and of those 13 days, 12 of them are being spent on the initial review. 30-day rate locks, therefore, may be inadequate with some mortgage lenders. A 45-day agreement may be required instead.

Typically, 45-day rate locks carry higher rates or higher fees, versus their 30-day counterparts. This amounts to a "tax" on borrowers, a result of the nation's rush to refinance en masse. It also may preclude a homebuyer's ability to close in 30 days.

As always, the best way to preserve a rate lock is to be as responsive as possible to the process. Return paperwork when asked, schedule appraisals immediately, and arrange to signing closing paperwork on the first available day.

With mortgage rates low, application volume -- and underwriting turntimes -- should remain high into early-2009, so the actual impact on sellers is probably going to be minimal, but should be considered by sellers and buyers.

Simple Real Estate Definitions:Refinance

A mortgage is a contract between a lender and borrower, defining the terms by which a home loan must be repaid. 

The paperwork, signed by both parties, includes provisions for things like:

• The interest rate
• The length of the loan
• The amount of money to be borrowed

But, like all loans, a mortgage loan can be paid off at any time.  So, when market interest rates fall, homeowners will often exercise their right to an "early payoff" by securing a new loan that pays off the old one.

This process is most commonly known as a refinance.

A refinance is the changing of the loan terms against a property, often for a better interest rate or a lower monthly payment.  When the refinance process is complete, the original lender's loan is paid in full using the money from the new lender's loan and the former's relationship is officially terminated.

There's no rule against how many times a person can refinance, nor is there an easy way to determine whether or not a refinance makes sense.  In general, if you can reduce your monthly payment while limiting your closing costs, to refinance is a smart decision. 

However, there are other reasons to refinance, too, including:

1. To convert from an ARM into a fixed rate mortgage (or vice versa)
2. To extract equity for paying off third-party debts or for cash
3. To extend a loan from 15 years to 30 year for payment relief

Because there are fewer third-parties involved with a refinance, it's often simpler and less expensive than a comparable purchase transaction.  The paperwork stack is often smaller, too.

Low Rates + Too Many Houses= Opportunity

For the first time in over a year, the sales of "used homes" fell below the 5-million unit trendline, helping to push the total home inventory higher by 0.1 percent nationwide.

Based on the rate at which homes are selling nationwide, it would take 11.2 months for the existing housing supply to be exhausted. In our market, the existing housing supply would be exhausted well before that benchmark.

For home buyers, this is an opportune time for negative news on housing.

First, sellers know that between now and the Super Bowl, housing activity will be light. The general scarcity of buyers may force a seller to accept a bid he wouldn't have accepted otherwise.

Second, the economy is showing weakness and that, too, can concern a home seller. Buyers are less likely to extend themselves during times of economic uncertainty, further reducing the buyer pool and, again, putting pressure on the seller to "make a deal".

And lastly, because the government has been trying to force mortgage rates down as a way to stimulate the economy, the weak housing data is actually making it cheaper to finance a home. This means that a well-qualified home buyer can better stay within budget.

Each 0.500 percent rate reduction saves $33 per $100,000 borrowed.

It is important to remember, though, that the U.S. housing market is not national -- it's highly localized. This is one reason why national real estate reports can be misleading. Just as figures from Phoenix have little to do with statistics from St. Paul, even data from neighboring ZIP codes can vary. In our marketplace, prices have not been adversely effected, even though the number of homes sold in 2008 was less than in 2007.

The universal truth, however, is that a home that is priced fairly will sell more quickly than a home that is not. And, until the Super Bowl passes in 45 days, expect fewer buyers to be out there competing for them.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal Online)