The Impact of Last Week's Fed Rate Cut

The Federal Reserve made an "emergency rate cut" last week, dropping the Fed Funds Rate by one half-percent to 1.500 percent.

The move is meant to stimulate the U.S. economy.

When the Federal Reserve changes the Fed Funds Rate, it often takes 9 months for the changes to work their way through the economy. 

On a broad scale, therefore, we won't know if the cut truly "worked" until Summer 2009.

But, as it relates to Americans in general, the rate cut spurred two immediate changes.

First, because Prime Rate is directly tied to the Fed Funds Rate, Prime Rate fell by 0.500 percent, too.  That means that interest rates on credit card debt and home equity lines of credit are now lower, reducing monthly interest costs for the majority of American households.

The second change is that mortgage rates were rising at the same time.

The Fed's actions today sparked optimism in some corners of Wall Street and money is now flowing into the stock market at the expense of bonds.   Because mortgage rates move in the opposite direction from bond demand, mortgage rates are higher this morning. 

As always, mortgage markets and mortgage rates remain on edge.  Therefore, rates are subject to change.  And quickly.  If you see a rate and payment you like, be ready to commit to it because it likely won't last long.

(Image courtesy: USA Today)

Pros & Cons of Borrowing Against Your 401(k)

As household budgets get pinched and credit markets tighten, a growing number of Americans are making "hardship withdrawals" from their 401(k) plans. 

One major fund group cites a 15 percent increase in activity from this time last year for various reasons including staving off foreclosure and medical emergency.

However, 401(k) loans should only be made with careful consideration.

On the positive side, 401(k) loans don't require a credit check.  This is helpful feature for people deep in debt, and who may have missed a payment or two to their creditors.  With no credit score requirement, a poor payment history won't disqualify a plan participant.

In addition, most 401(k) loans can be arranged with just a phone call and a small stack of paperwork.  There's no "qualification process" like applying for a credit card or a mortgage.  Money can be available, therefore, in as little as a day.

But there are negatives to 401(k) loans and the biggest one relates to taxation. 

If you take a 401(k) loan and can't repay according to its terms, the IRS taxes the loan as ordinary income and slaps on a 10 percent penalty if you're under 59 1/2.  That can be very costly for a lot of people. 

But, even if you do repay the loan on time, it's still gets expensive.  This is because 401(k) loan repayments are subject to double-taxation. 

The first taxation occurs when the loan is repaid because the payback is made with post-tax paycheck dollars.  A person in the 25% tax bracket, for example, would need a $1,333 paycheck to repay a $1,000 loan -- the missing $333 goes to taxes.

And the second taxation occurs at retirement when the funds are finally withdrawn.  The IRS taxes that money as ordinary income.

Now, this isn't to say that taking a loan against your 401(k) is bad, it just may not be the best possible route for a person in trouble.  Especially because of the costs.  If you're planning to withdraw from your 401(k) for hardship, be sure to talk with a qualified financial professional first. 

If you'd like a referral to a trusted professional, call or email me anytime.

Fannie Mae Lowers Fee, Makes Mortgages More Affordable

In an effort to provide "the most market support possible", Fannie Mae is cutting one of its mandatory loan fees by 0.250 percent, effective immediately.

Fannie Mae introduced the Adverse Market Delivery Charge in December 2007 to offset foreclosure and delinquency losses.  The initial fee was a quarter-percent of the amount borrowed. 

Then, as market conditions worsened, Fannie Mae doubled its across-the-board loan fee to 0.500 percent in August of this year.

As of today, the fee is back to its starting point.

Since the start of the 2008, Fannie Mae has made 21 separate changes to its mortgage guidelines.  Most have been detrimental to borrowers, increasing the difficulty, or the cost, of qualifying for a conforming home loan.

Today's change is among the few that are beneficial.

With mortgage pricing edging higher because of the looming Congressional vote and Wall Street's reaction to the weak jobs report, the good news is that price changes could have been worse. 

Fannie Mae's Adverse Market Delivery Charge flip-flip is keeping rates in check -- perfect timing for home buyers shopping for their new mortgage.

Some Good News From the Falling Stock Market

Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed below the psychologically-important 10,000 level for the first time since 2004. 

Despite the milestone-marker breach, however, there was a large group of Americans with reason to cheer.  As stocks sold off, mortgage markets rallied to the benefit of home buyers everywhere. 

Conforming mortgages rates improved yesterday.

Most interesting here is that rates improved for the same reason that the stock market fell.  Because of lingering concerns about the worlds' economies, investors lost their collective appetite for risk Monday.  In response, they sold their stock positions and parked the proceeds in the "safe haven" of U.S. government-backed debt. 

The extra demand for safe investments pushed up the prices on mortgage bond which, in turn, pushed down mortgage bond rates.

Now, we can't predict when the market's risk appetite will return, but when it does, expect money to flow into stocks just as quickly as it left. 

All year long, with respect to stock markets, it's been either "everybody in" or "everybody out" and, for now, it's everybody out.  This is why mortgage rates fell Monday. 

But, when the momentum shifts -- and it will shift -- mortgage rate shoppers would do well to be prepared.  Be ready to lock that mortgage rate because as soon as the stock market reverses course, mortgage rates will head higher. 

If stocks recover as quickly as they tanked, expect mortgage rates to spike badly.

(Image courtesy: USA Today)

Getting a Break When Rates Dip

Getting a great, low mortgage rate is often a combination of luck and preparation. 

Consider what happened in conforming mortgages last week:

• Monday, mortgage rates plunged to their lowest levels of the year
• Tuesday, they bounced back in full
• Wednesday, they clicked higher by a eighth-percent
• Thursday, they clicked higher by another eighth-percent

And so, here we on are Friday, four days after the best rates of the year, and the mortgage market barely resembles itself.  Despite what the papers tell you, mortgage rates are not low anymore.

That's the luck element -- you can't plan for rates moving up and down.

But, if you missed Monday's plunge, and don't want to miss the next one, all you have to do is get prepared.  Then, you're waiting for luck when it happens.

There are 4 basic steps to prepare for low rates and the key is to follow them before rates plunge, not during.  That way, you're ready to pounce on low rates at the moment they present themselves.

The first step is to contact your loan officer. 

If you don't have a loan officer, or your loan officer is no longer in the business, ask a friend for a referral.  Do not call the 800-number on your mortgage statement -- you'll almost always get a better "offer" from a live person than from a call center representative. 

Next, give your loan officer a complete mortgage application, including a "credit pull".  Be honest and accurate and don't worry about the credit check harming your score -- the bureaus protect it for a period of 30 days.

Then, ask your loan officer what supporting documentation will be required to approve your eventual home loan.  Whatever it is, gather it and send it in -- either by fax or email.

And lastly, be ready to act when your loan officer calls with the good news. If rates have dipped to lower-than-normal levels, it likely won't last long.

This preparation process is very similar to what home buyers do before making an offer on a home.  Getting ready for a refinance is like getting pre-approved, but instead of waiting to pick out a home, it's waiting to pick out a rate.  

So, to summarize:

1. Contact your loan officer
2. Give a complete application
3. Gather and submit supporting documentation
4. Be ready to act

Mortgage rates don't plunge often, but when they do, it's usually short-lived.  If you're prepared for when it happens, you can lock in the best mortgage rate available at the best possible time.

It will be your lucky day and you will have been ready for it.

Picking the Right Mortgage Payback Period?

On all principal + interest home loans, the first few years of payments include a lot more money going to interest than to principal. 

This is because mortgage repayment schedules are front-loaded with interest, meaning large-volume principal reduction won't occur until late in the mortgage's lifecycle.

Comparing products at a 6% mortgage rate, did you know that after 15 years:

• A 15-year mortgage will be paid in full
• A 20-year mortgage will have 41.21% of its loan balance remaining
• A 30-year mortgage will have 73.19% of its loan balance remaining

Of course, this doesn't mean that 15-year mortgages are better than their 20-year or 30-year brethren.  It just means that 15-year mortgages pay off faster. 

Yet, there are reasons for homeowners to avoid 15-year mortgages. 

For example, versus 20-year or 30-year products, 15-year mortgages require the highest monthly payment because the payback period is compressed to a shorter time.  In addition, mortgage interest tax deductions to which most homeowners are entitled are reduced.

So, just because the 15-year pays off quickly doesn't mean that it's best for everyone.

Who Benefited From Falling Stocks

Yesterday, the stock market suffered its largest one-day point loss since September 17, 2001, and its sixth-largest point loss in history.

Not everyone got punished, however. Two groups of people, in particular, welcomed yesterday's losses:

1. Home buyers out shopping for a mortgage


2. Homeowners that snoozed through last week's mortgage rate drop

See, as the stock market dropped yesterday, investors anxiously moved their money away from risky investments like stocks and into the safe haven of government-backed debt.

This includes mortgage-backed debt, of course.

As traders poured into bonds, bond prices rose. They did so beginning at Market Open, all the way into Market Close. And, because mortgage rates move in the opposite direction of mortgage bonds prices, mortgage rates fell Monday. A lot.

Today, the Federal Open Market Committee meets, adjourning from its scheduled conference at 2:15 P.M. ET. In the Fed's press release, among other things, markets expect Ben Bernanke & Co. to address the financial system's stability -- or lack thereof -- that helped to fuel Monday's selling action.

If markets find the Fed sympathetic, expect stock markets to rally, and mortgage rates to rise.

Government Takover Lower MOrtgage Rates

Sunday, the U.S. government assumed control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The papers have done a terrific job talking about the political perspective of the takeover, and the economic perspective of the takeover, but very few people have addressed the key news for homeowners.

Mortgage rates are plummeting.

The reason why mortgage rates are falling post-takeover is because of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's collective role in the U.S. mortgage market.

1. They guarantee about half of the nation's $12.1 trillion in mortgages
2. They purchased and securitized four-fifths of the nation's home loans as recently as six months ago

See, earlier this year, Wall Street punished Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for their weak balance sheets and large numbers of delinquencies.  This led to Wall Street to raise the borrowing costs for the two firms across the board which, in turn, led to higher mortgage rates for Americans.

But today, with their balance sheets backed by the U.S. government, Fannie and Freddie are now viewed as "safe" by the eyes of Wall Street. 

This has lowered their borrowing costs, pushing down mortgage rates for the four-fifths of the country that is currently channeling their home loans through Fannie or Freddie.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

If You Want Change You Need to do Stuff!

New quote of the day "If you're afraid of being criticized, Say nothing, Do nothing, Be Nothing!'

Just got that from a friend on the Interpretations and Procedures Subcommittee of NAR's Professional Standards Committee. She said she got it from her Grampa - I think Grampa was a pretty smart guy -

Today the Federal Government moved into a conservator position with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While I'm not sure how that will affect the mortgage market, the fact that they have thrown the full strength of the government into supporting the housing market is encouraging.

Now we need to wait and see what happens.

Mortgage Insurance Rates on the Rise

Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI) is an insurance policy paid to a lender in the event that a homeowner defaults on his home loan.

With the growing number of mortgage defaults nationwide, mortgage insurers are finding their balance sheets under attack and their revenues in the red.

So far this year, mortgage insurers have paid out $6 billion in claims.

In response to the losses, the mortgage insurance industry is using two tactics to return to profitability -- and both mean bad news for homeowners.

1. Raise the minimum standards to get insurance
2. Raise the annual mortgage insurance cost

This is very similar to what Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are doing to shore up their respective balance sheets; lending to only the most credit worthy, and making sure to charge them for their commensurate risk.

Because of the higher PMI rates, it's getting more expensive for small-downpayment home buyers to finance their homes. And that's if they can even still get mortgage insurance.

Some mortgage insurers now require a 10 percent minimum downpayment in certain states.

So with the number of mortgage defaults expected to rise through 2009, qualifying for PMI should get more expensive and more difficult. If you plan to make a small downpayment on your next home -- or plan to remortgage your current low equity home -- consider moving up your timeframe.

It may not be as cheap or as easy to get financing as it is today.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

How Your Purchasing Power Just increased!

The Producer Price Index is a business inflation meter and it's now up 9.8 percent annually.

This is a huge number for PPI and represents the highest year-over-year rate of inflation since 1981.

Normally, blowout inflation like this would be terrible for mortgage rates but mortgage markets are actually improved since last Tuesday's data release.

Usually, a rocketing PPI would create an inflation expectation on Wall Street which would, in turn, cause mortgage rates to rise, impacting home affordability.

Yesterday, however, that's not what happened.

Upon the PPI release, Wall Street looked at the 9.8 percent number and simply shrugged it off. "Of course PPI is high," traders thought. "Did you see how high energy costs were last month?"

Traders know that in July, oil prices reached an all-time high of $147.27 per barrel and, since then, crude is down more than 20 percent. Because of this, Wall Street has now turned its attention to the August PPI data, thinking it will much more calm than July's.

In other words, instead of fearing inflation, traders believe the worst of it is over, providing an unexpected boost to home buyers in need of mortgages. As inflation expectations fall, mortgage rates are following suit.

Conforming mortgage guidelines are the Home Loan Rule Book, delineating between applicants that approved for a mortgage and those that do not.

Effective today, the rule book just got a little bit tougher.

According to Fannie Mae, homeowners converting their primary residence into a second home or investment property will be subject to additional underwriting scrutiny. Fannie Mae is leery of lending to people that may be over-extended.

The complete underwriting update is available at the Fannie Mae Web site but some of the more important points are summarized below, divided into Second Home and Investment Property.

Second Home Guideline Changes

• Without 30 percent equity in the second home, mortgage applicants must have 6 months worth of PITI reserves for both properties in their bank accounts.
• With 30 percent equity, the PITI reserve can be reduced to 2 months.

Previously, there was no minimum reserve requirement. Now, a second home buyer needs to know that they can carry that property for a period of time with their current savings.

Investment Property Guideline Changes

• With 30 percent equity in an investment property, 75% of the monthly rental income can be applied toward the applicant's monthly household income.
• Without 30 percent equity, rental income may not be applied to the applicant's monthly household income and 6 months PITI is required for both properties.

Previously, 75% of the rental income was allowable regardless of equity, and minimum reserve requirements were 2 months. Due to the number of "investors" who bought property without equity, and then walked away from the properties when they were unable to rent them, some method of involving the investor in the success and failure of the investment was sought.

Even though just a small percentage of Americans own second homes or investment properties, the conforming mortgage guideline changes impacts homeowners everywhere.

This is because more restrictive guidelines lead to two separate, but concurrent, outcomes:

1. The demand for homes reduces because fewer buyers qualify for mortgages
2. The supply of homes increases because fewer sellers can refinance into more affordable home loan

Less demand and more supply places downward pressure on home prices.

Now, remember that mortgage guidelines continuously evolve and what's accurate as August 1, 2008, may not be accurate six months down the road. In other words, confirm what you're reading about mortgages online with your loan officer before making any real estate-related decisions.

Capital Gains Tax Change

Monday, President Bush signed the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 into law and the press jumped on the obvious storylines:

• First-time home buyers get a $7,500 purchase "credit"


• Conforming loan limits move to $625,000


• Delinquent homeowners get a lifeline from the FHA


• Local governments get federal money for buying and restoring foreclosed homes

However, tucked away on the last few pages of the text, in a section called "Revenue Offsets", there's an important tax implication. The new housing law changes the way in which capital gains exclusions are calculated on the sale of a residence.

Under the old system, a taxpayer was entitled up to $250,000/$500,000 of tax-free gains from the sale of a home if filing separately/jointly provided he lived in the residence for at least 2 of the preceding 5 calendar years.

Savvy homeowners exploited this verbiage, moving from home-to-home every 2 years to avoid paying capital gains, especially in states where the prices were rising so rapidly that they could make tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars in that short 2 year window.

The new law thwarts this tactic.

Capital gains exclusions are now calculated by taking the capital gains on the sale of the home and multiplying it by a ratio of how long a person has lived in a home, by how long that person owned the home.

In the example above, a person living in a home for 2 of 5 years would be entitled to 40 percent of tax-free gains on a home sale instead of all of it. Therefore the impact on home buyers who are not planning on relatively short term moves (under 5 years) will be minimal. Like many other of the bill's provisions, the lawmakers attempted to direct this bill to relief for the home buyer who is trying to find a place for their family, and not the real estate investor or "flipper". As always, however, it's best to talk with a qualified accountant about how tax code changes may impact you personally.

The new capital gains rules go into effect starting January 1, 2009.

Freddie Mac's SEC Filing : Makes Buying a House In Philly Today's Concern

Sometimes, the hardest part about news is knowing where to find it.

In its filing with the SEC last week, Freddie Mac stated that it will "pursue increases" to its middleman fee. This would likely make buying a home more expensive for every conforming borrower in the country.

The exact verbiage from the filing is extremely opaque and unless a person knew what things like "delivery fees" were, or "bulk and flow transactions", he'd be inclined to skip right over the offending passage, tucked away on Page 72 in a paragraph labeled Business Outlook.

But, if we paraphrase the passage and simplify it for laypersons, it reads something like the following:

We didn't charge enough fees in 2007 to account for the massive number of defaults. We don't plan to make that mistake again in 2008.

Strangely, in the entire 1,394-page filing, this passage is the only mention of "future default costs" leading to more loan charges. In other words, it's easy to see why this story didn't get picked up by the major news outlets.

To the media, the major angle in Freddie Mac's filing was that it registered to sell $10 billion worth of securities. For everyday Americans, though, the major story was a different one -- mortgage fees may never be as low as they are today.

Therefore, if you know that you'll need a new, conforming home loan soon -- for either a home purchase or a refinance -- consider moving up your timeframe. Whether rates rise or fall, it's likely you'll pay a more money to borrow money only because you waited. And combined with Philadelphia's rating by Forbes Magazine as one of the 10 Best Places to Buy in the US, going out and finding the right home today is the smart move.

The implied fee increase would be the third this fiscal year, following increases in December 2007 and in April 2008.

Calculating the Effects of Inflation

The phrase "Consumer Price Index" can be intimidating and unclear to Americans. It's an economic term, after all, and not a part of everyday American language.

It even has its own abbreviation to add to the confusion -- CPI.

So, when a layperson hears that "CPI is rising", it's not always clear what it means. The tendency, therefore, is to ignore the news.

This is one reason CPI is commonly substituted with the more down-home expression of "Cost of Living".

In contrast to the term "CPI", the phrase "Cost of Living" is a lot more clear. When people hear that the Cost of Living is rising, instinctively, they get it. And now they can see how it works in numbers, courtesy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Inflation Calculator at the government Web site helps a person compare household income to the changing Cost of Living between any two years since 1913. For example, a U.S. household earning $48,201 in 2007 would have to increase that income to $50,868 just to keep up with "life".

CPI touched a 17-year high in June, jumping 5.000 percent year-over-year. Without a 5.000 percent increase an income, a household falls behind.

Cost of Living Figures Increase

Another day, another piece of inflationary data.

June's Consumer Price Index showed a 5 percent year-over-year increase in what is now the largest annual Cost of Living increase for Americans in 17 years.

This is bad news for active home buyers because rising costs are considered inflationary and inflation causes mortgage rates to increase.

Predictably, mortgage rates jumped Wednesday morning after the CPI data was released and they continued to move higher throughout the day.

For most home loans, mortgage rates finished the day up by 0.125 percent.

Applying Wednesday's mortgage rate movement to the true cost of owning a home, the eighth-percent increase added $8 per $100,000 mortgaged per month. The silver lining of this cloud in our market is that our housing stock is still so affordable, that now may be the time to act before rates increase more.

(Image courtesy: The New York Times)

Consumer Confidence & the Economy

When people lack confidence, prophecies or concerns sometimes become self-fulfilling.

Last week saw the largest Bank failure in our history, when there was a run on IndyMac Bank, causing the third largest bank failure in our history.

According to Marketwatch.com, " Regulators said the "immediate cause" of IndyMac's failure was a deposit run in recent days that began after a June 26 letter to the OTS and the FDIC from New York Senator Charles Schumer was made public. The letter voiced concerns about IndyMac's soundness.

By July 10, depositors had pulled more than $1.3 billion from their accounts, the OTS said in a statement. "

The impact of the IndyMac failure has been softened by the FDIC insurance which provides $100,000 on some covered deposits, and up to $250,000 coverage on IRA deposits, but the cost to the FDIC will be substantial.

Would IndyMac have failed without the failure of consumer confidence caused by the Schumer later? Maybe yes and Maybe no, but the lack of confidence was in fact a precipitating factor.

As the government moves to shore up the trouble financial industry, the big question is when and how will consumer confidence be restored? The facts of the economy seem to have much less impact then media coverage and its impact on public perception, and action.

Perhaps we would all be better served, like the people in the movie "Its A Wonderful Life" if we just remember not to panic. In our market at least, the price of homes is very affordable, and the risk of loss of equity is minimal according to the risk assessment done of major metropolitan areas, recently concluded. But I'll cave that for another post.

If A Bank Reduces Your HELOC -Try This..

A Home Equity Line of Credit is bank product that grants homeowners access to the equity in their home at anytime, usually using checks.

Often called a HELOC, these equity-based credit lines function very much like credit cards:

• The rate is adjustable, tied to Prime Rate
  
  
  
• There is a minimum monthly payment
  
  
  
• There is a pre-set spending/credit limit

But different from credit cards is that a HELOC is "guaranteed" by real estate and with real estate values in question nationwide, many banks are exercising a little-known clause in the HELOC contract.

With alarming frequently, banks are reducing the pre-set spending limits on their active equity lines. Via USPS, lenders are notifying homeowner with $100,000 HELOCs that their new HELOC limit is $25,000, for example. This move is part of a trend towards conservative lending that is a response to the too liberal lending policies that have led to the current issues in the credit industry.

And the banks aren't being discriminate based on payment history or local real estate conditions, either -- it's happening everywhere with equal force.

The good news is that banks will accept appeals on HELOC reductions on a case-by-case basis.

One way to appeal a HELOC reduction is:

1. Call your lender's Customer Service line. Do not send an email.
   
   
   
2. Politely ask why the HELOC limit was reduced. Listen carefully to explanation.
   
   
   
3. Explain why you would like your HELOC reinstated. Acceptable reasons may include home improvement projects or improper home valuation by the lender.
   
   
   
4. Be prepared to write a formal letter, if asked. Address the issues explained in #2.

Banks will typically not reinstate a HELOC if a borrower has been delinquent on payments, or lives in a severely depressed neighborhood. However, because lenders rely on computer models to assess risk, it's always a good idea to ask.

The key to the success or failure of your request may lie completely in the manner in which you approach the problem. Remember that the person you're speaking to in the bank may be able to help you, but they are probably not the person who instituted the policy, and its not a good idea to be too aggressive with them if you want their help. After all, its only human to want to help people that are nice to you or be less inclined to help those who are not. And in this case, the Human Element of an appeal may work in your favor.