Everybody Thinks the Real Estate Market has Recovered

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Well maybe not everybody, and maybe not quite recovered yet, However a consensus of several major real estate groups says that 2010 is the time for the expansion of the real estate market. According to several studies, the market of 2009 will mark the end of the real estate "contraction" and next year will mark an expected increase of almost 10% with a projected total of 5.403 million units closed in 2010 compared to an estimated 4.929 million units registered in 2009.

The compilation of housing forecasts released was released earlier this week on Real Estate Economy Watch.com. The Web site , operated by former NAR economist David Lereah presented the September housing forecasts of the National Association of Realtors, the National Association of Homebuilders, the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and then calculated the consensus (mean) prediction for each major housing measure for the group as a whole.

Of course the impact of foreclosures on the market, and the renewed activity of investors and home buyers looking to take advantage of the well priced inventory, combined with the $8,000 tax credit have positively impacted the market this year. Local tracking indicates that each quarter this year so far has seen increases in sales activity. However the tax credit is currently due to end in November, and if it is not extended, the impact on the marketplace will have to be seen to be judged.

The article goes on to say "At present, the housing sector is experiencing a recovery in home sales and housing starts. Both measures are meaningfully above their January cyclical lows. Home price movements are also improving. Home price declines on a year over year basis have decelerated in monthly reporting, while home prices have increased in recent months on a monthly basis." In our local market area, where prices were not reduced as drastically as some parts of the country, this impact is good news for homeowners and a caution for home buyers that want to take advantage of the current combination of low rates and attractive prices.

In the meantime, as things seem to get brighter, we can't forget that miracles do sometimes happen. After all the Phillies are in the World Series for the 2nd year in a row!

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Could the Philadelphia Real Estate Market be Recovering?

Image via Wikipedia

Image via Wikipedia

As long as I have been in the real estate business, I have been told that real estate is an economic leader. We are first in and we are first out. A cliche that has been true in every recession I have experienced.

You'll remember that residential real estate was the first part of the economy to feel the changes from the boom to our current economic readjustment. Economic indicators were pointing to issues in the market just before we began experiencing the effects of those issues. The good news (for those of us who own homes or invest in real estate) is that we seem to be seeing some signs indicating that may be the next step in the process.

In a recent article in Realty Times, Kenneth R. Harney pointed out the following positive economic indicators;

Pending home sales took a 3.2 percent jump last month -- the second straight month of positive growth. These are signed home sale contracts that haven't yet gone to closing, but are scheduled to do so in the next 60 to 90 days.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, said we're now at "the leading edge of first time buyers responding to very favorable affordability conditions, and an $8,000 tax credit."

Mortgage applications for future home purchases also surged again, up five percent nationwide last month, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Rates are firming up in response to the rising demand for mortgage money. They rose last week on average to 4.8 percent for 30 year fixed rate loans and 4.6 percent for 15 year mortgages.

In a market like Philadelphia, where our average prices have seen little readjustment from their historically affordable levels, these indicators may indeed herald the long awaited "bottom" of the residential real estate market. Fueled by basic human needs rather than rampant speculation, our market has remained stable, with only single digit price adjustments inthe past 2 years, and some makret areas actually seeing increases in price even in this environment.

So if you have been thinking of "making your move" in the real estate market, now may just be the moment you've been waiting for. As I have mentioned in earlier posts, buying real estate for a longer term financial benefit has always been a good thing to d, since time will ease any market adjustments in your favor. With these indicators, that logic is reinforced by the immediate benefots of the current market. So i f you have a reason to buy, and have been waiting for the right time, your wait may well be over.