As The Supply Of New Homes Grows, So Does The Opportunity For A "Good Deal"

The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the New Homes Sales category last month -- good news for homebuyers in Philadelphia, New Jersey, and around the country.

A "new home" is a home for which there's no previous owner.

New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 -- the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.

Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009's pace.

The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:

• The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
• Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
• Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales

Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it's a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.

As a result, this season's home buyers may be treated to "free" upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.

It's all a matter of timing, of course. New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it's not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season. And from market to market, sales activity varies.

That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It's a favorable time to buy a new home.

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Looking At The 2010 Predictions For Housing Markets And Mortgage Rates

2010 is just a few days old and already the "experts" are making predictions for the year.

Housing calls and mortgage rate predictions run the gamut:

• Home prices will fall in 2010
• Home prices will rise in 2010
• Mortgage rates will rise in 2010
• Mortgage rates will rise by a lot in 2010

Given how varied their outlooks, it's clear that the professionals have no better view of the future than the amateurs. An expert can make an educated guess, but it's a guess nonetheless.

Last year, Wall Streeters predicted a 25% pullback in home prices. 12 months later, we know prices didn't fall. Wall Street also predicted higher mortgage rates for 2009. That prediction was fulfilled.

In a recent article in Real Estate Trends, it was predicted that the Philadelphia market would appreciate at a rate that would make it one of the top 20 markets in the country. And based on the early activity this year, demand for our moderate priced housing may well lead to increased prices.

There's a lot of talk on CNBC and elsewhere about what's coming in 2010. Before you take those predictions to the bank, just remember that analysts do a much better job interpreting data from the past than projecting it into the future.

The only thing that's certain right now is that mortgage rates are historically low, the government is giving tax credits to qualified buyers, and there's a lot of good "deals" in housing. Make the most of what's out there today because it will take 12 months for us to look back and know which predictions were right and which were wrong.

Until then, predictions are just opinions and guesses.

The Stimulus Packages Helps More than 1st Time Homebuyers

Image by djbones via Flickr

With Congress reaching agreement on a $789 billion stimulus package for Americans and the President expected to sign it into law, the clock may be ticking for this year's home buyers and homeowners.

The package contains two benefits related to housing.

The first provision is fairly well-known. It gives first-time home buyers an $8,000 tax credit provided they purchase a home between January 1, 2009 and August 31, 2009.

This is a true tax credit.

To reduce misuse and abuse, however, the $8,000 credit is contingent on home buyers holding property for at least 3 years. If the home is sold in fewer than 3 years, the tax credit must be repaid to the government. It's also worth noting that the date range applies closings and not sales agreements.

Closings must occur within these 8 months to be eligible.

A second noteworthy feature in the package is that the stimulus package gives existing homeowners incentive to "green" their homes. With available tax credits for energy-efficient windows and doors, furnaces and insulation, homeowners can claim larger tax deductions based on home improvement, up to $1,500.

But, just because the government provides housing-related tax benefits doesn't mean you should just act on them blindly. Tax liability is a highly individual item and you may be ineligible for any number of reasons. Be sure to discuss your plans with a qualified accountant before committing to a plan.